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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."