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An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation.

Sudden Shift in Predictions

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.

A particular user, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Market Signals Before Announcement

Trading information shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

Yet the odds had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and surged in the morning of the next day, pointing to a rapid movement in positions just before the social media post was made.

"This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.

A handful of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome.

Legal Questions Intensifies

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

A bill introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events.

This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency.

Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting space.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."