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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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